Getting an economic grip on the next year – Ross Walker | Briefing Knowledge Leaders 2023

While forecasters typically examine the health of an economy in terms of growth, since the past few years have been “so unprecedently volatile” it might be more informative to look at other indicators, says economist Ross Walker in his talk at Knowledge Leaders 2023.

Does this paint any rosier a picture of the UK’s economy in the coming year? Well, not quite. Growth is expected to remain stagnant in the coming months, the full impact of the Bank of England raising interest rates is yet to be felt, and the risk of recession is rising — but not definitive: “The PMI predicted seven of the last two recessions. Yes, you heard that right,” Walker quips. It isn’t all grey though, Walker notes, with corporate debt as a percentage of GDP remaining low: “The corporate sector is slightly less vulnerable and financially exposed.”

For more comedic stylings laced with informative analysis of the UK’s macroeconomic indicators, watch the full video here.

Ross Walker is head of global economics and chief UK economist for NatWest Markets’ economics and markets strategy team. His principal responsibilities are macroeconomic forecasting and central bank policy analysis.